The Egyptian Crises as seen by me in Israel

I am currently in Israel and have had several important briefings since I have arrived. These are my impressions and I speak for no one but myself. I hold dual citizenship, although I currently live in North Carolina. These comments may be shared with others in my name if you wish.

Media coverage in Israel is somewhat different than that of CNN and that the security concerns of Israel given its geographical proximity to Egypt and the more than 36 billion in advanced weaponry that could fall into the hand of radical Islamists, are very real.

It seems that politicians from Likud to Labour, that is from the right to the left, are quite concerned about the way in which President Obama is managing the situation in Egypt. Basically, they feel that Obama cut off Mubarak way too quickly. This risks a power vacuum in Egypt and in a power vacuum the chances of radical Islam taking over could be considerably greater. Although I have not heard it specifically, I think they might have rather seen president work more closely with Mubarak for a solution such as a call for elections in 45-60 days in Egypt.

I must admit that it is hard to feel sorry for Mubarak. Ambassador Dan Kurtzer of the US said that both in the Bush and Obama administrations, an effort was made to get Mubarak to try to loosen up and democratize. After the debacle in Gaza in 2006, the Bush administration backed away from this effort. I also heard today that Israeli intelligence had warned the Bush administration (and later the Obama administration) as early as 2008 during the Egyptian bread riots that the situation in Egypt was reaching a boiling point.

Nevertheless, there is something quite frightening in general about such a herd or mob mentality as one now sees in Egypt. What is playing out on the street of Egypt seems to me to be a conflict between a “thug-ocracy” and a “mob-ocracy.” I see very little respect for democracy on either side. Certainly this is not a great way to manage political change!

As we have seen with the Hamas election in Gaza, elections are not necessarily a panacea. A democracy works because of strong respect and democratic institutions and infrastructure. It is hard to see these in Egypt at this time.

One thing that has come out is how much the Israeli military budget might have to be increased, especially if the Muslim Brotherhood takes over Egypt. Hamas, Hezbollah and the Muslim Brotherhood – not really a happy prospect for Israel’s security planners!

From what I am seeing, this is a time for reassessment in Israel of everything from the defense budget to the peace process.

To the Israelis, Mohammed El Baredei is certainly not a hero. Many feel that he was responsible as the head of the IAEA for helping Iran cover up its pursuit of nuclear weapons and there is a feeling that in some way, he is close to Iran. In addition, were he to become the head of Egypt, there would be an open pipeline of weapons to Gaza.

I am also a little concerned about those who wish to compare what is happening in Egypt to Tiananmen Square. I am not sure that there is a parallel. What is happening there could be far more significant than simply a group of people trying to gain their freedom. It could very well be an effort by radical Islam to take over the largest and most powerful country in the Arab world and to use the myth of freedom fighters and the person of El Baradei to accomplish these ends. Americans, especially American Jews, who want to identify with the struggles of the Egyptian people would be well advised to exercise a little more caution in their judgment. I can imagine some of such people praising the Khomeini revolution as a "righteous
revolution" against the Shah. As we know, the results from that “struggle for freedom” are less than encouraging, for we are now looking at a country bent upon obtaining nuclear weapons and extending its hegemony over the entire Middle East and possibly more.

Herb Keinon gives us something to consider in an article entitled “Recent unrest in Arab world is not about us” when he writes:

The Middle East is now at a crossroads. There is a democratic moment fast approaching, but one looks at it with fear and trembling. The events in Tunisia and now in Egypt may indeed represent the Arab world’s first popular revolutions, but they are by far not the world’s first revolutions.

The fear and trembling is that what happened in France in 1789, in Russia in 1917 and in Iran in 1979 will repeat itself in Egypt and the Arab world in 2011. After the old was thumped out by the new in those countries, there was a brief moment when democratic forces arose – be it the National Constituent Assembly and the Declaration of the Rights of Man and of the Citizen in France, Alexander Kerensky in Russia, or Shapour Bakhtiar in Iran – only to be swept away by the radicals: Robespierre in Paris, the Bolsheviks in Moscow, Ayatollah Khomeini in Teheran.
In Egypt, too, democratic forces are on the march, but the radical extremists are lurking in the shadows, ready to pounce.”

These words from Keinon should cause us to be cautious in viewing the anti Mubarak demonstrators as being parallel to the Civil Rights movement in the US or to Tiananmen Square.

A final thought. In one briefing, there was a theory that in 1979 the Arab would accepted the idea that it could not defeat Israel. This represented a significant paradigm shift. With the prospect of a nuclear Iran, the paradigm is once again shifting. A nuclear Iran would lead the Arab world to once again feel that Israel could be defeated. If such were to be the case, then the conflict is no longer one which is solvable, but simply one which needs to be managed until such time as would warrant the possibility of achieving a lasting peace.

Fred Guttman