Thursday, January 26, 2012

Arab Spring or Arab Winter?

This week marks the anniversary of the beginning of the Arab Spring in Tunisia. Sorry but I do not share the optimism of others concerning the so called Arab Spring. It seems to me that at least as far as peace with Israel and the rest of the Western world is concerned; the Arab Spring is closer to an Arab Winter.

This is especially true in Egypt wherein estimates are that the Muslim Brotherhood will control 50% of the lower house of Egypt’s parliament and the Salafis will control 25%. That is 75 % for the Islamic parties.

While for a variety of reasons, I do not see Egypt revoking the peace treaty with Israel, I do believe that the treaty will have little of the content or meaning that it did when it was signed by Sadat in 1979. There will be little if any contact between Egypt and Israeli diplomats. Trade will be kept to a minimum. The natural gas pipeline will not function. Tourism will be minimal.

Worst of all, Egypt will arm Hamas in Gaza to the teeth and be quite content to encourage Hamas to undertake terrorist activities against Israel.

The protestors in Tahrir square might have had the best of intentions to create a liberal democracy, but after years of anti Israel and anti Jewish propaganda, the voice of the Egyptian people is being heard in favor of Islamic rule which has little desire to promote peace and cooperation with Israel.

Egypt is not America. Let us not stick our heads in the sand and join the bandwagon of those who think that the Arab Spring is a step forward for progress, understanding and peace. Rather, the Arab Spring has been a useful tool for the Islamists to take over and once they are in power, the values of liberal democracy, cooperation with the West and peace have little meaning.

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